Reports on population movement(2000-2030) by the National Statistical Office show that the number of elementary school age population will be decreased by 1.4million from 2005 to 2020. It will effect both school size and the policies for school facilities, which have focused on downsizing class as the high standard of OECD nations. As the unfolding evidence is emerging that a number of schools and classes will be emptied out by 2030. This study aims at developing a objective and scientific device for estimate the number of students at future and evaluating the validity of school establishment. In doing so, it explores the relationship between the changing factors and the number of students. It proposes four factors such as the changes of population, the fertility rate, the number of apartment occupant and movement of population. As the result of the statistic analysis on the correlation coefficient, it finds out that the change of apartment occupant has a close correlation with the change in the number of student and has a deep effect on the establishment of school. Finally, it shows the construction of school according to urban developments during 1999-2008 in Incheon Metro-City. This study would help the authorities to expect the future number of student and to restrict overbuilding of surplus classes, finally the reasonable expenditure for school facilities.