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Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer
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  • Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer
저자명
Kyu Rang Kim, Robert C. Seem, Eun Woo Park, John W. Zack, Roger D. Magarey
간행물명
The Plant Pathology Journal KCI
권/호정보
2005년|21권 2호(통권94호)|pp.111-118 (8 pages)
발행정보
한국식물병리학회|한국
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
PDF텍스트(0.74MB)
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영문초록

Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database,which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.

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