- 일반적인 IMA과정에 대한 지수평활 최적성의 확장
- ㆍ 저자명
- 박해철,박성주,Park. Hae-Chul,Park. Sung-Joo
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국국방경영분석학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 1982년|8권 1호|pp.99-107 (9 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국국방경영분석학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This paper is concerned with the optimality of exponential smoothing applied to the general IMA process with different moving average and differencing orders. Numerical experiments were performed for IMA(m,n) process with various combinations of m and n, and the corresponding forecast errors were compared. Results show that the higher differencing order is more critical to the optimality of exponential smoothing, i.e., the IMA process with the higher moving average order, forecasted by exponential smoothing, has comparatively smaller forecast error. If the difference between the differencing order and the moving average order becomes larger, the accuracy of forecast by exponential smoothing declines gradually.