- 태양활동 자료를 이용한 플레어 발생 예보
- ㆍ 저자명
- 이진이,김갑성,Lee. Jin-Lee,Kim. Gap-Seong
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 천문학논총
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 1996년|11권 1호|pp.263-277 (15 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국천문학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
We have intensively carried out numerical calculations on flare predictions from the solar activity data for photospheric sunspots, chromospheric flare and plages, coronal X-ray intensities and 2800MHz radio fluxes, by using multilinear regression method. Intensities of solar flares for the next day have been predicted from the solar data between 1977-1982 and 1993-1996. Firstly, we have calculated flare predictions with the multilinear regression method, by using separate solar data in growth and decay phase of sunspot area and magnetic field strength from the whole data on solar activities. Secondly, the same operations as above have been made for the remaining data after removal of the data with large deviation from the mean calculated by the above prediction method. we have reached a conclusion that average hit ratio of correct predictions to total predictions of flares with class of M5 over has been as high as 70% for the first case and that of correct prediction number to total observation number has been shown as 61%.