This paper describes a diagnostic technique of power transformers by on-line detection of ultrasonic signals. A trend of partial discharge variation in a real transformer was estimated by counting the number of ultrasonic signals until insulation paper in the point-to-plane electrode is punctured. The number of electrical signals is closely related to the ultrasonic signals generated by partial discharge. The trend of the ultrasonic signal number could easily be distinguished by taking moving average. The insulation failure due to partial discharge in transformers can be predicted based on the trend analysis of ultrasonic signal number caused by partial discharge. (author). 14 refs., 10 figs.