- 태양활동극대기를 대비한 태양활동예보
- ㆍ 저자명
- 이진이,장세진,김연한,김갑성,LEE. JINNY,JANG. SE JIN,KIM. YEON HAN,KIM. KAP-SUNG
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 천문학논총
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 1999년|14권 2호|pp.103-112 (10 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국천문학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
We have investigated the solar activity variation with period shorter than 1000 days, through Fourier transformation of solar cycle 21 and 22 data. And real time predictions of the flare maximum intensity have been made by multilinear regression method to allow the use of multivariate vectors of sunspot groups or active region characteristics. In addition, we have examined the evolution of magnetic field and current density in active regions at times before and after flare occurrence, to check short term variability of solar activity. According to our results of calculation, solar activity changes with periods of 27.1, 28.0, 52.1, 156.3, 333.3 days for solar cycle 21 and of 26.5, 27.1, 28.9, 54.1, 154, 176.7, 384.6 days for solar cycle 22. Periodic components of about 27, 28, 53, 155 days are found simultaneously at all of two solar cycles. Finally, from our intensive analysis of solar activity data for three different terms of $1977~1982,; 1975~1998,;and;1978~1982$, we find out that our predictions coincide with observations at hit rate of $76\%,;63\%$, 59 respectively.