Smoldering is a non-flaming combustion mode, characterized by thermal degradation and c charring of the virgin material, evolution of smoke and emission of visible glow. A big fire may @ occur even in a confined environment having a limited amount of oxygen, due to smoldering c combustion through a porous solid material. This paper presents a theoretical analysis on the effect of smoldering combustion on fire occurrence based on a report about fire investigation of a real f fire accident. It is assumed that the propagation of the smolder wave is one-dimensional, d downward, opposing an upward forced flow and steady in a frame of reference moving with the s smolder wave. Smoldering combustion is modeled by a one-step reaction mechanism, without c considering pyrolysis. It is found that dominant parameters controlling smoldering combustion i include mass flux of oxidizer entering the reaction zone and void fraction of solid fuel. It is also found that the mechanism of transition to flaming is critically influenced by these two parameters.