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Interactive Judgemental Adjustment of Initial Forecasts with forecasting Support Systems
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  • Interactive Judgemental Adjustment of Initial Forecasts with forecasting Support Systems
  • Interactive Judgemental Adjustment of Initial Forecasts with forecasting Support Systems
저자명
Lim. Joa-Sang,Park. Hung-Kook
간행물명
韓國經營科學會誌
권/호정보
1999년|24권 1호|pp.79-98 (20 pages)
발행정보
한국경영과학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

There have been a number of empirical studios on the effectiveness of Judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts Generally the results have been mixed. This study examined the impact of the reliability and the source of the additionally presented reference forecast upon the revision process in a longitudinal time series forecasting task with forecast support systems. A 2-between(reliability & source). 2-within(seasonality & block) factorial experiment was conducted with post-graduate students using real time series. Judgmental adjustment was found to improve the accuracy of initial eyeballing irrespective of the reliability of an additionally presented forecast. But it did not outperform the dampened reference forecast. No effect was found of the way the source of the reference forecast was framed. Overall the subjects anchored heavily on their Initial forecast and relied too little on the reference forecast irrespective of its reliability. Moreover they did not improve at the task over time, despite immediate outcome feedback.