- 기술예측에의 적용을 위한 상호영향분석법의 이론적 고찰 : 한계와 연구방향
- ㆍ 저자명
- 조근태,권철신
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 기술혁신연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2001년|9권 1호|pp.95-120 (26 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 기술경영경제학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
One of the systematic attempts for technological forecasting is Delphi Method that externalizes and manipulates unformalized experts opinion in a particular problem or subject. It has, however, a critical shortcoming that it can not reflect the degree of interaction that exists among forecast events or subject. Gordon and Hayward(1969) criticize that when the forecast events are strongly interrelated, a totally unrealistic consensus may result. They proposed a new forecasting method that considers the interaction of events, that is, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA). A number of related models have been developed after them. In this study, we examine a variety of research results related to CIA obtained by literature survey and propose the limitation and future research direction. This analysis would be expected to help us to create a strategic scenario on future technology development at the government and firm level.