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Predicting Nonstationary Time Series with Fuzzy Learning Based on Consecutive Data
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  • Predicting Nonstationary Time Series with Fuzzy Learning Based on Consecutive Data
  • Predicting Nonstationary Time Series with Fuzzy Learning Based on Consecutive Data
저자명
김인택,Kim. In-Taek
간행물명
전기학회논문지. The transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers. D / D, 시스템 및 제어부문
권/호정보
2001년|50권 5호|pp.233-240 (8 pages)
발행정보
대한전기학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

This paper presents a time series prediction method using a fuzzy rule-based system. Extracting fuzzy rules by performing a simple one-pass operation on the training data is quite attractive because it is easy to understand, verify, and extend. The simplest method is probably to relate an estimate, x(n+k), with past data such as x(n), x(n-1), ..x(n-m), where k and m are prefixed positive integers. The relation is represented by fuzzy if-then rules, where the past data stand for premise part and the predicted value for consequence part. However, a serious problem of the method is that it cannot handle nonstationary data whose long-term mean is varying. To cope with this, a new training method is proposed, which utilizes the difference of consecutive data in a time series. In this paper, typical previous works relating time series prediction are briefly surveyed and a new method is proposed to overcome the difficulty of prediction nonstationary data. Finally, computer simulations are illustrated to show the improved results for various time series.