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저자명
홍정식,안재경,홍석기,Hong. Jung-Sik,Ahn. Jae-Kyung,Hong. Suk-Kee
간행물명
대한산업공학회지
권/호정보
2001년|27권 3호|pp.233-238 (6 pages)
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대한산업공학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

This paper deals with demand forecasting of parts in an automobile model which has been extinct. It is important to estimate how much inventory of each part in the extinct model should be stocked because production lines of some parts may be replaced by new ones although there is still demands for the model. Furthermore, in some countries, there is a strong regulation that the automobile manufacturing company should provide customers with auto parts for several years whenever they are requested. The major characteristic of automobile parts demand forecasting is that there exists a close correlation between the number of running cars and the demand of each part. In this sense, the total demand of each part in a year is determined by two factors, the total number of running cars in that year and the failure rate of the part. The total number of running cars in year k can be estimated sequentially by the amount of shipped cars and proportion of discarded cars in years 1, 2,$cdots$, i. However, it is very difficult to estimate the failure rate of each part because available inter-failure time data is not complete. The failure rate is, therefore, determined so as to minimize the mean squared error between the estimated demand and the observed demand of a part in years 1, 2,$cdots$, i. In this paper, data obtained from a Korean automobile manufacturing company are used to illustrate our model.