- 대기중 미량금속의 발암 위해도에 대한 몬테 카를로 분석
- ㆍ 저자명
- 장미숙,이진홍
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국대기환경학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2002년|18권 6호|pp.465-474 (10 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국대기환경학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In order to reflect variability due to exposure factors as well as to assess uncertainty associated with cancer risk posed by airborne trace metals, a Monte Calro analysis has been made in this study. Input parameters for Monte Carlo analysis were developed or adjusted using body weight, lifetime, and exposure frequency of Koreans. Ambient distributions of toxic metals were founded to be lognormal distributions for most of them using goodness-of-fit tests. Thus, the 95% UCL and 95% LCL of carcinogenic metals were estimated by H-statistic method for lognormal distribution, respectively. The results of Monte Carlo analysis of 95% UCL showed that the 95th percentile risks for men and women were 1.2 and 1.1 times higher than an acceptable risk of 10$^{-5}$ , respectively. The probabilities which those risks exceed the acceptable risk were estimated to be 8% and 6%, respectively, while to be 95% and 94%, respectively on the basis of the minimum acceptable risk of 10$^{-6}$ , respectively. Approximately 90% of total cancer risk came from human carcinogens such as arsenic and hexavalent chromium. Therefore, it is necessary to properly manage both arsenic and hexavalent chromium emissions in the study area.