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후향연산 모형 (Back-calculation model)을 이용한 국내 HIV 감염자와 AIDS 환자의 추계
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  • 후향연산 모형 (Back-calculation model)을 이용한 국내 HIV 감염자와 AIDS 환자의 추계
저자명
이주영,고운영,기미경,김지연,황진수,Lee. Ju-Young,Goh. Un-Yeong,Kee. Mee-Kyung,Kim. Jee-Yun,Hwang. Jin-Soo
간행물명
예방의학회지
권/호정보
2002년|35권 1호|pp.65-71 (7 pages)
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대한예방의학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Objective : To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. Methods : Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods Results : The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were $708{sim}1,426$ in Weibull distribution and $918{sim}1,980$ in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was $16{sim}25$ in Weibull distribution and $13{sim}26$ in Gamma distribution. Conclusions : The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were $1.4{sim}4.0$ times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea, further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.