This paper describes about the estimation method of die lift by wear and plastic deformation in hot forging process. The thermal load and the thermal softening are happened by the high temperature in hot forging process. Tool lift decreases considerably due to the softening of the surface layer of a tool caused by high thermal load and long contact time between tool and billet. Also, tool life is to a large extent limited by wear, heat crack and plastic deformation in hot forging process. Above all, the main factors which affects die accuracy and tool lift are wear and the plastic deformation of a die. The new developed technique for predicting tool life applied to estimate the production quantity for a spindle component and these techniques assist to improve the tool life in hot forging process.