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The Explicit Treatment of Model Uncertainties in the Presence of Aleatory and Epistemic Parameter Uncertainties in Risk and Reliability Analysis
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  • The Explicit Treatment of Model Uncertainties in the Presence of Aleatory and Epistemic Parameter Uncertainties in Risk and Reliability Analysis
  • The Explicit Treatment of Model Uncertainties in the Presence of Aleatory and Epistemic Parameter Uncertainties in Risk and Reliability Analysis
저자명
Ahn. Kwang-ll,Yang. Joon-Eon
간행물명
Journal of the Korean Nuclear Society
권/호정보
2003년|35권 1호|pp.64-79 (16 pages)
발행정보
한국원자력학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

In the risk and reliability analysis of complex technological systems, the primary concern of formal uncertainty analysis is to understand why uncertainties arise, and to evaluate how they impact the results of the analysis. In recent times, many of the uncertainty analyses have focused on parameters of the risk and reliability analysis models, whose values are uncertain in an aleatory or an epistemic way. As the field of parametric uncertainty analysis matures, however, more attention is being paid to the explicit treatment of uncertainties that are addressed in the predictive model itself as well as the accuracy of the predictive model. The essential steps for evaluating impacts of these model uncertainties in the presence of parameter uncertainties are to determine rigorously various sources of uncertainties to be addressed in an underlying model itself and in turn model parameters, based on our state-of-knowledge and relevant evidence. Answering clearly the question of how to characterize and treat explicitly the forgoing different sources of uncertainty is particularly important for practical aspects such as risk and reliability optimization of systems as well as more transparent risk information and decision-making under various uncertainties. The main purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance for quantitatively treating various model uncertainties that would often be encountered in the risk and reliability modeling process of complex technological systems.