- 전이함수모형을 이용한 국민의료비 예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김상아,박웅섭,김용익
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 보건행정학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2003년|13권 3호|pp.91-103 (13 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국보건행정학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The purpose of this study was to provide basic reference data for stabilization scheme of health expenditure through forecasting of health expenditure. The authors analyzed the health expenditure from 1985 to 2000 that had been calculated by Korean institute for health and social affair using transfer function model as ARIMA model with input series. They used GDP as the input series for more precise forecasting. The model of error term was identified ARIMA(2,2,0) and Portmanteau statics of residuals was not significant. Forecasting health expenditure as percent of GDP at 2010 was 6.8%, under assumption of 5% GDP increase rate. Moreover that was 7.4%, under assumption of 3% GDP increase rate and that was 6.4%, under assumption of 7% GDP increase rate.