- 시뮬레이션을 이용한 생물테러 발생에 따른 피해예측에 관한 연구 천연두를 중심으로
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김영훈,박정화,김태현,문성암
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국국방경영분석학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2003년|29권 2호|pp.26-44 (19 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국국방경영분석학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This study Is to forecast the damage of smallpox as a biological weapon and to measure the effect of potential responses (quarantine, vaccination and cure) to the spread of smallpox infection when a smallpox bioterrorism attack occurs. We designed the smallpox spreading simulation model through the literature study on a basis of some existing infectious disease models such as SIR, SEIR model by using Vensim program. In order to evaluate the performance of responses to smallpox, we measure the total infection population, infection sustaining duration, average infection rate and the infection spreading behavior of the smallpox. This study can help those who are related to the bioterrorism forecast the present and possible demage, and take more effective actions for minimizing the damage by smallpox bioterrorism.