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Artificial Neural Networks for Interest Rate Forecasting based on Structural Change : A Comparative Analysis of Data Mining Classifiers
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  • Artificial Neural Networks for Interest Rate Forecasting based on Structural Change : A Comparative Analysis of Data Mining Classifiers
  • Artificial Neural Networks for Interest Rate Forecasting based on Structural Change : A Comparative Analysis of Data Mining Classifiers
저자명
Oh. Kyong-Joo
간행물명
한국데이터정보과학회지
권/호정보
2003년|14권 3호|pp.641-651 (11 pages)
발행정보
한국데이터정보과학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

This study suggests the hybrid models for interest rate forecasting using structural changes (or change points). The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain significant intervals caused by change points, to identify them as the change-point groups, and to reflect them in interest rate forecasting. The model is composed of three phases. The first phase is to detect successive structural changes in the U. S. Treasury bill rate dataset. The second phase is to forecast the change-point groups with data mining classifiers. The final phase is to forecast interest rates with backpropagation neural networks (BPN). Based on this structure, we propose three hybrid models in terms of data mining classifier: (1) multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)-supported model, (2) case-based reasoning (CBR)-supported model, and (3) BPN-supported model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three classifiers (MDA, CBR and BPN) can perform better. For interest rate forecasting, this study then examines the prediction ability of hybrid models to reflect the structural change.