- 시계열 자료의 예측을 위한 베이지안 순환 신경망에 관한 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 홍찬영,박정훈,윤태성,박진배,Hong. Chan-Young,Park. Jung-Hoon,Yoon. Tae-Sung,Park. Jin-Bae
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 제어·자동화·시스템공학 논문지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2004년|10권 12호|pp.1295-1304 (10 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 제어로봇시스템학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper, the Bayesian recurrent neural network is proposed to predict time series data. A neural network predictor requests proper learning strategy to adjust the network weights, and one needs to prepare for non-linear and non-stationary evolution of network weights. The Bayesian neural network in this paper estimates not the single set of weights but the probability distributions of weights. In other words, the weights vector is set as a state vector of state space method, and its probability distributions are estimated in accordance with the particle filtering process. This approach makes it possible to obtain more exact estimation of the weights. In the aspect of network architecture, it is known that the recurrent feedback structure is superior to the feedforward structure for the problem of time series prediction. Therefore, the recurrent neural network with Bayesian inference, what we call Bayesian recurrent neural network (BRNN), is expected to show higher performance than the normal neural network. To verify the proposed method, the time series data are numerically generated and various kinds of neural network predictor are applied on it in order to be compared. As a result, feedback structure and Bayesian learning are better than feedforward structure and backpropagation learning, respectively. Consequently, it is verified that the Bayesian reccurent neural network shows better a prediction result than the common Bayesian neural network.