- 추세분석법에 의한 영역의 장기 수요예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 황갑주,최수근,Hwang. Kab-Ju,Choi. Soo-Keon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 전기학회논문지. The transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers. A / A, 전력기술부문
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2004년|53권 11호|pp.604-609 (6 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대한전기학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This paper suggests a long-term distribution area load forecasting algorithm which offers basic data for distribution planning of power system. To build forecasting model, 4-level hierarchical spatial structure is introduced: System, Region, Area, and Substation. And, each spatial load can be decided proportional to its portion in the higher level. This paper introduces the horizon year loads to improve the forecasting results. And, this paper also introduces an effective load transfer algorithm to improve forecasting stability in case of new or stopped substations. The proposed model is applied to the load forecasting of KEPCO system composed of 16 regions, 85 areas and 761 substations, and the results are compared with those of econometrics model to verify its validity.