- 데이터 가중 성능을 갖는 GMDH 알고리즘 및 전력 수요 예측에의 응용
- ㆍ 저자명
- 신재호,홍연찬,Shin. Jae-Ho,Hong. Yeon-Chan
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 제어·자동화·시스템공학 논문지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2006년|12권 7호|pp.631-636 (6 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 제어로봇시스템학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper, an algorithm of time series function forecasting using GMDH(group method of data handling) algorithm that gives more weight to the recent data is proposed. Traditional methods of GMDH forecasting gives same weights to the old and recent data, but by the point of view that the recent data is more important than the old data to forecast the future, an algorithm that makes the recent data contribute more to training is proposed for more accurate forecasting. The average error rate of electric power demand forecasting by the traditional GMDH algorithm which does not use data weighting algorithm is 0.9862 %, but as the result of applying the data weighting GMDH algorithm proposed in this paper to electric power forecasting demand the average error rate by the algorithm which uses data weighting algorithm and chooses the best data weighting rate is 0.688 %. Accordingly in forecasting the electric power demand by GMDH the proposed method can acquire the reduced error rate of 30.2 % compared to the traditional method.