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효율적 DMU 선별을 통한 개선된 기술수준예측 방법: 주력전차 적용을 중심으로
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  • 효율적 DMU 선별을 통한 개선된 기술수준예측 방법: 주력전차 적용을 중심으로
  • A Hybrid Technological Forecasting Model by Identifying the Efficient DMUs: An Application to the Main Battle Tank
저자명
김재오,김재희,김승권,Kim. Jae-Oh,Kim. Jae-Hee,Kim. Sheung-Kown
간행물명
기술혁신연구
권/호정보
2007년|15권 2호|pp.83-102 (20 pages)
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기술경영경제학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

This study extends the existing method of Technology Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) by incorporating a ranking method into the model so that we can reduce the required number of DMUs (Decision Making Units). TFDEA estimates technological rate of change with the set of observations identified by DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) model. It uses an excessive number of efficient DMUs(Decision Making Units), when the number of inputs and outputs is large compare to the number of observations. Hence, we investigated the possibility of incorporating CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis) into TFDEA so that the ranking of DMUs can be made. Using the ranks developed by CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis), we could limit the number of efficient DMUs that are to be used in the technology forecasting process. The proposed hybrid model could establish technology frontiers with the efficient DMUs for each generation of technology with the help of CCCA that uses the common weights. We applied our hybrid model to forecast the technological progress of main battle tank in order to demonstrate its forecasting capability with practical application. It was found that our hybrid model generated statistically more reliable forecasting results than both TFDEA and the regression model.