- 한반도 상륙 태풍의 강도변화 예측을 위한 단순회귀모형 개발
- ㆍ 저자명
- 최기선,김백조,이지윤,Choi. Ki-Seon,Kim. Baek-Jo,Lee. Ji-Yun
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2007년|17권 2호|pp.135-145 (11 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.