- 단시간 다중모델 앙상블 바람 예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 윤지원,이용희,이희춘,하종철,이희상,장동언,Yoon. Ji Won,Lee. Yong Hee,Lee. Hee Choon,Ha. Jong-Chul,Lee. Hee Sang,Chang. Dong-Eon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2007년|17권 4호|pp.327-337 (11 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this study, we examined the new ensemble training approach to reduce the systematic error and improve prediction skill of wind by using the Short-range Ensemble prediction system (SENSE), which is the mesoscale multi-model ensemble prediction system. The SENSE has 16 ensemble members based on the MM5, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM. We evaluated the skill of surface wind prediction compared with AWS (Automatic Weather Station) observation during the summer season (June - August, 2006). At first stage, the correction of initial state for each member was performed with respect to the observed values, and the corrected members get the training stage to find out an adaptive weight function, which is formulated by Root Mean Square Vector Error (RMSVE). It was found that the optimal training period was 1-day through the experiments of sensitivity to the training interval. We obtained the weighted ensemble average which reveals smaller errors of the spatial and temporal pattern of wind speed than those of the simple ensemble average.