An analytical method to predict the post-weld deformation at the heat-affected zone (HAZ) is presented in this paper. The method was based on the assumption that the post-weld deformation is caused by external forces resulting from the inherent strain, which is defined as the irrecoverable strain after removing structural restraints and loadings. In general, the equivalent loading method can be used to analyze distortions in welding areas because it is efficient and effective. However, if additional loads are applied after welding, it is difficult to determine the final strain on a welded structure. To determine the final strain of a welded structure at the HAZ more accurately, we developed a modified equivalent loading method based on the inherent strain that incorporated hardening effects. The proposed method was applied to calculate the residual stress at the HAZ. Experiments were also conducted on welded plates to evaluate the validity of the proposed method.