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Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model
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  • Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model
  • Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model
저자명
Nam. Si-Kyung,Sohn. Young-Woo
간행물명
International journal of management science
권/호정보
2008년|14권 2호|pp.105-118 (14 pages)
발행정보
한국경영과학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.