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동아시아 지역의 AOGCM 불확실성 평가 및 미래기후전망
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  • 동아시아 지역의 AOGCM 불확실성 평가 및 미래기후전망
저자명
김민지,신진호,이효신,권원태,Kim. Min-Ji,Shin. Jin-Ho,Lee. Hyo-Shin,Kwon. Won-Tae
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권/호정보
2008년|18권 4호|pp.507-524 (18 pages)
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한국기상학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{circ}{sim}50^{circ}N$, $100^{circ}{sim}150^{circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.