- 자원 수급 및 가격 예측 -니켈 사례를 중심으로-
- ㆍ 저자명
- 정재헌,Jung. Jae-Heon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2008년|9권 1호|pp.125-141 (17 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국시스템다이내믹스학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
It is very difficult to predict future demandply, price for resources with acceptable accuracy using regression analysis. We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demandsupply and price for nickel. Nickel is very expensive mineral resource used for stainless production or other industrial production like battery, alloy making. Recent nickel price trend showed non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear pattern better than the regression analysis. Our model has been calibrated for the past 6 year quarterly data (2002-2007) and tested for next 5 year quarterly data(2008-2012). The results were acceptable and showed higher accuracy than the results obtained from the regression analysis. And we ran the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply related variables. This simulations implied some meaningful price change patterns.