For the better understanding of the temporal characteristics of soil water, this study is to suggest a stochastic soil water model and to apply it for impact assessment of climate change. The loss function is divided into 3 stages for more specified comprehension of the probabilistic behavior of soil water, and especially, the soil water model considering the stochastic characteristics of precipitation is developed in order to consider the variation of climatic factors. The simulation result of soil water model confirms that the proposed soil water model can re-generate the observation properly, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. Moreover, with the simulation results with a climate change scenario, it can be predicted that the future soil water will have higher variations than present soil water.