This paper deals with shrink fit analysis of rotor by 2D cross-section, 2D axis-symmetry, and 3D FEM model. And this paper presents 2nd order approximation function of thermal expansion displacement by design variables (shape dimension, heating temperature, sleeve length, interference etc.), table of orthogonal array and RSM(response surface methodology). The possibility of the rotor with shrink fit is evaluated by thermal expansion displacement. If thermal expansion displacement is larger than interference, shrink fit enable to make the rotor. 2D axis-symmetry model and 3D model are more reasonable than 2D cross-section model, because stress and strain is different along length of shaft.