- 한반도 미래 기온 변화 예측을 위한 ECHO-G/S 시나리오의 통계적 상세화에 관한 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 신진호,이효신,권원태,김민지,Shin. Jinho,Lee. Hyo-Shin,Kwon. Won-Tae,Kim. Minji
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2009년|19권 2호|pp.107-125 (19 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Statistical downscaled surface temperature datasets by employing the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis and multiple linear regression method are examined. For evaluating the efficiency of this statistical downscaling method, monthly surface temperature of the ECMWF has been downscaled into monthly temperature having a fine spatial scale of ~20km over the Korean peninsula for the 1973-2000 period. Monthly surface temperature of the ECHOG has also been downscaled into the same spatial scale data for the same period. Comparisons of temperatures between two datasets over the Korean peninsula show that annual mean temperature of the ECMWF is about $2^{circ}C$ higher than that of the ECHOG. After applying to the statistical downscaling method, the difference of two annual mean temperatures reduces less than $1^{circ}C$ and their spatial patterns become even close to each other. Future downscaled data shows that annual temperatures in the A1B scenario will increase by $3.5^{circ}C$ by the late 21st century. The downscaled data are influenced by the ECHOG as well as observation data which includes effects of complicated topography and the heat island.