The main subject of this paper is to develop analytic method with which output power or sensitivity variations of a magnetostrictive ultrasonic transducer can be estimated with no aid of experiments. After the bias magnetic field deployed over the patch is calculated using finite element analysis for magnetostatics, the representative value is extracted by averaging these field values. The operating point on the characteristic curve for magnetostriction is identified by this value and then the output performance is calculated from it. It is verified that the results from this simple model match well with those of its experimental version and some limits of this modeling technique are also considered.