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Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation
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  • Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation
  • Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation
저자명
Morino. Yu,Chatani. Satoru,Hayami. Hiroshi,Sasaki. Kansuke,Mori. Yasuaki,Morikawa. Tazuko,Ohara. Toshimasa,Hasegawa. Shuichi,Kob
간행물명
Asian journal of atmospheric environment
권/호정보
2010년|4권 3호|pp.150-156 (7 pages)
발행정보
한국대기환경학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

Inter-comparison of chemical transport models (CTMs) was conducted among four modeling research groups. Model performance of the ensemble approach to $O_3$ and $PM_{2.5}$ simulation was evaluated by using observational data with a time resolution of 1 or 6 hours at four sites in the Kanto area, Japan, in summer 2007. All groups applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The ensemble average of the four CTMs reproduced well the temporal variation of $O_3$ (r=0.65-0.85) and the daily maximum $O_3$ concentration within a factor of 1.3. By contrast, it underestimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations by a factor of 1.4-2, and did not reproduce the $PM_{2.5}$ temporal variation at two suburban sites (r=~0.2). The ensemble average improved the simulation of ${SO_4}^{2-}$, ${NO_3}^-$, and ${NH_4}^+$, whose production pathways are well known. In particular, the ensemble approach effectively simulated ${NO_3}^-$, despite the large variability among CTMs (up to a factor of 10). However, the ensemble average did not improve the simulation of organic aerosols (OAs), underestimating their concentrations by a factor of 5. The contribution of OAs to $PM_{2.5}$ (36-39%) was large, so improvement of the OA simulation model is essential to improve the $PM_{2.5}$ simulation.