- 마코프 국면전환을 고려한 이자율 기간구조 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 이유나,박세영,장봉규,최종오,Rhee. Yu-Na,Park. Se-Young,Jang. Bong-Gyu,Choi. Jong-Oh
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대한산업공학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2010년|36권 3호|pp.203-211 (9 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대한산업공학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.