- 기술성장곡선을 활용한 생존모형 개발
- ㆍ 저자명
- 오현승,조진형,Oh. Hyun-Seung,Cho. Jin-Hyung
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 산업경영시스템학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2010년|33권 4호|pp.167-177 (11 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국산업경영시스템학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Recent competitive and technological changes during the past decade have accelerated the need for better capital recovery methods. Competition and technology have together shortened the expected lives of property which could not have been forecasted several years ago. Since the usage of technological growth models has been prevalent in various technological forecasting environments, the various forms of growth models have become numerous. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels in predicting future levels of growth. A set of criteria for choosing an appropriate model for technological growth models was developed. Two major characteristics of an S-shaped curve were elected which differentiate the various models; they are the skewness of the curve and underlying assumptions regarding the variance of error structure of the model.