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MCMC Approach for Parameter Estimation in the Structural Analysis and Prognosis
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  • MCMC Approach for Parameter Estimation in the Structural Analysis and Prognosis
  • MCMC Approach for Parameter Estimation in the Structural Analysis and Prognosis
저자명
An. Da-Wn,Gang. Jin-Hyuk,Choi. Joo-Ho
간행물명
한국전산구조공학회논문집
권/호정보
2010년|23권 6호|pp.641-649 (9 pages)
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한국전산구조공학회
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정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Estimation of uncertain parameters is required in many engineering problems which involve probabilistic structural analysis as well as prognosis of existing structures. In this case, Bayesian framework is often employed, which is to represent the uncertainty of parameters in terms of probability distributions conditional on the provided data. The resulting form of distribution, however, is not amenable to the practical application due to its complex nature making the standard probability functions useless. In this study, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed to overcome this difficulty, which is a modern computational technique for the efficient and straightforward estimation of parameters. Three case studies that implement the estimation are presented to illustrate the concept. The first one is an inverse estimation, in which the unknown input parameters are inversely estimated based on a finite number of measured response data. The next one is a metamodel uncertainty problem that arises when the original response function is approximated by a metamodel using a finite set of response values. The last one is a prognostics problem, in which the unknown parameters of the degradation model are estimated based on the monitored data.