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일 최고 및 최저 기온에 대한 UMOS (Updateable Model Output Statistics) 시스템 개발
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  • 일 최고 및 최저 기온에 대한 UMOS (Updateable Model Output Statistics) 시스템 개발
저자명
홍기옥,서명석,강전호,김찬수,Hong. Ki-Ok,Suh. Myoung-Seok,Kang. Jeon-Ho,Kim. Chansoo
간행물명
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권/호정보
2010년|20권 2호|pp.73-89 (17 pages)
발행정보
한국기상학회
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정기간행물|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

An updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system for daily maximum and minimum temperature ($T_M$ and $T_m$) over South Korea based on the Canadian UMOS system were developed and validated. RDAPS (regional data assimilation and prediction system) and KWRF (Korea WRF) which have quite different physics and dynamics were used for the development of UMOS system. The 20 most frequently selected potential predictors for each season, station, and forecast projection time from the 68 potential predictors of the MOS system, were used as potential predictors of the UMOS system. The UMOS equations were developed through the weighted blending of the new and old model data, with weights chosen to emphasize the new model data while including enough old model data to ensure stable equations and a smooth transition of dependency from the old model to the new model. The UMOS equations are being updated by every 7 days. The validation results of $T_M$ and $T_m$ showed that seasonal mean bias, RMSE, and correlation coefficients for the total forecast projection times are -0.41-0.17 K, 1.80-2.46 K, and 0.80-0.97, respectively. The performance is slightly better in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. Also the performance of UMOS system are clearly dependent on location, better at the coastal region than inland area. As in the MOS system, the performance of UMOS system is degraded as the forecast day increases.