- 제주도 일단위 풍력발전예보 모형개발을 위한 군집분석 및 기상통계모형 실험
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김현구,이영섭,장문석,Kim. Hyun-Goo,Lee. Yung-Seop,Jang. Moon-Seok
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국환경과학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2010년|19권 10호|pp.1229-1235 (7 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국환경과학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Three meteor-statistical forecasting models - the transfer function model, the time-series autoregressive model and the neural networks model - were tested to develop a daily forecasting model for Jejudo, where the need and demand for wind power forecasting has increased. All the meteorological observation sites in Jejudo have been classified into 6 groups using a cluster analysis. Four pairs of observation sites among them, all having strong wind speed correlation within the same meteorological group, were chosen for a model test. In the development of the wind speed forecasting model for Jejudo, it was confirmed that not only the use a wind dataset at the objective site itself, but the introduction of another wind dataset at the nearest site having a strong wind speed correlation within the same group, would enhance the goodness to fit of the forecasting. A transfer function model and a neural network model were also confirmed to offer reliable predictions, with the similar goodness to fit level.