Estimating optimum hardware capacity of an e-learning system is very important process to grasp reasonable size of designing technique architecture and budget during step of ISP(information strategic planning) and development. It hugely influences cost and quality of the whole project. While investment on information system hardware has been continuously increased, there was no certified hardware capacity estimating method in e-learning system development. A guideline for hardware sizing of information systems was established by Telecommunication Technology Association in 2008. However, the guideline is not appropriate for estimating optimum hardware capacity of an e-learning system because it was designed to provide general standards for estimating hardware capacity of various types of projects. The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for estimating optimum hardware capacity in e-learning system development. To develop the methodology, this study, first of all, analyzes two e-learning development projects, in which the guideline was applied to estimate optimum hardware capacity. Then, this study finds out several key factors influencing on hardware capacity. Finally, this study suggests a methodology for estimating optimum hardware capacity of an e-learning system, in which weights for the factors are determined through AHP analysis.