- Bayesian Model for Cost Estimation of Construction Projects
- Bayesian Model for Cost Estimation of Construction Projects
- ㆍ 저자명
- Kim. Sang-Yon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국건축시공학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2011년|11권 1호|pp.91-99 (9 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국건축시공학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물|ENG| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Bayesian network is a form of probabilistic graphical model. It incorporates human reasoning to deal with sparse data availability and to determine the probabilities of uncertain cases. In this research, bayesian network is adopted to model the problem of construction project cost. General information, time, cost, and material, the four main factors dominating the characteristic of construction costs, are incorporated into the model. This research presents verify a model that were conducted to illustrate the functionality and application of a decision support system for predicting the costs. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to estimate parameter distributions. Furthermore, it is shown that not all the parameters are normally distributed. In addition, cost estimates based on the Gibbs output is performed. It can enhance the decision the decision-making process.