본 연구에서는 식중독 예방과 식품의 안전성 확보 및 정량적 미생물 위해평가에 활용하기위하여, Gompertz model과 Baranyi model을 이용하여 샐러드용 신선채소에서 L. monocytogenes의 SGR에 관한 성징예측모델(SGR by Gompertz equation=-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$, SGR by Baranyi equation=0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$)을 개발하였다. 개발된 모델의 적합성 평가를 위해 MSE, Bf, 및 Af factor를 산출하였다. 샐러드용 신선 채소의 MSE, Bf, Af는 Gompertz model식을 적용한 경우 0.002718, 1.050084, 1.160767, Baranyi model 식을 적용한 경우 0.055186, 1.931472, 2.137181으로 나타나 Gompertz model식을 적용하여 개발한 예측모델이 Baranyi model 식을 이용하여 개발한 예측모델에 비해 적합성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. Gompertz model식을 활용하여 본 연구에서 개발된 샐러드용 신선 채소에서의 L. monocytogenes 성장 예측모델은 신선 채소류를 생산, 가공, 보관 및 판매하는 산업체에서 널리 활용 가능할 것으로 판단되며, 더욱 정확한 예측모델 개발을 위해서는 pH 및 수분활성도 등 다양한 변수에 따른 미생물의 성장패턴 변화 등에 관한 연구가 추가적으로 시행되어야 할 것으로 생각되어 진다.
In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{circ}C$ to $4^{circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.
