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Extending the Scope of Automatic Time Series Model Selection: The Package autots for R
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  • Extending the Scope of Automatic Time Series Model Selection: The Package autots for R
  • Extending the Scope of Automatic Time Series Model Selection: The Package autots for R
저자명
Jang. Dong-Ik,Oh. Hee-Seok,Kim. Dong-Hoh
간행물명
한국통계학회 논문집
권/호정보
2011년|18권 3호|pp.319-331 (13 pages)
발행정보
한국통계학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

In this paper, we propose automatic procedures for the model selection of various univariate time series data. Automatic model selection is important, especially in data mining with large number of time series, for example, the number (in thousands) of signals accessing a web server during a specific time period. Several methods have been proposed for automatic model selection of time series. However, most existing methods focus on linear time series models such as exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. The key feature that distinguishes the proposed procedures from previous approaches is that the former can be used for both linear time series models and nonlinear time series models such as threshold autoregressive(TAR) models and autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH) models. The proposed methods select a model from among the various models in the prediction error sense. We also provide an R package autots that implements the proposed automatic model selection procedures. In this paper, we illustrate these algorithms with the artificial and real data, and describe the implementation of the autots package for R.