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산업경기순환 하에서 투자행동 비동기화의 효과
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  • 산업경기순환 하에서 투자행동 비동기화의 효과
저자명
김창욱,Kim. Chang-Uk
간행물명
한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구
권/호정보
2011년|12권 1호|pp.5-37 (33 pages)
발행정보
한국시스템다이내믹스학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

This article aims to clarify what is the best investment behavior in Capital Intensive Industries(hereinafter CIIs) which show repeated business cycles. In CIIs, investments is centered in the period of upturns and goes beyond the adequate level because of the time that takes to completion of facilities. This over-investment causes oversupply and downturn, and in period of downturn, investments shrinks under the adequate level. The repeated change of over-investment and under-investment is the reason for the business cycles. In this article, a simulation model replicating the business cycles in CIIs was constructed and the effects of various investment strategies was tested. The results are as follows. First, the investment behavior following market condition causes the ongoing fluctuation of profits. Second, strategic increase in flexibility such as adjustment of facility utilization and shortening of facility construction time contributes to the increase in profit and stabilization of income. Third, in relation to market condition, the constant investment is more profitable in stagnated market and the counter-market investment is more profitable in growing market. In sum, it is desirable not to synchronize their investment with those of competitors.