- Modeling rating transitions
- Modeling rating transitions
- ㆍ 저자명
- Weibbach. Rafael,Mollenhauer. Thomas
- ㆍ 간행물명
- Journal of the Korean statistical society
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2011년|40권 4호|pp.469-485 (17 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국통계학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물|ENG| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The time-continuous discrete-state Markov process is a model for rating transitions. One parameter, namely the intensity to migrate to an adjacent rating state, implies an ordinal rating to have an intuitive metric. State-specific intensities generalize such state-stationarity. Observing Markov processes from a multiplicative intensity model, the maximum likelihood parameter estimators for both models can be studied with the score statistic, written as a martingale transform of the processes that count transitions between the rating states. A Taylor expansion reveals consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates, resulting in a ${chi}^2$-distributed likelihood ratio of state-stationarity against the state-specific model. This extends to time-stationarity. Simulations contrast the asymptotic results with finite samples. An application to a sufficiently large set of credit rating histories shows that the one-parameter model can be a good starting point.