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Empirical Forecast of Solar Proton Events based on Flare and CME Parameters
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  • Empirical Forecast of Solar Proton Events based on Flare and CME Parameters
  • Empirical Forecast of Solar Proton Events based on Flare and CME Parameters
저자명
Park. Jin-Hye,Moon. Yong-Jae
간행물명
천문학회보
권/호정보
2011년|36권 2호|pp.97-97 (1 pages)
발행정보
한국천문학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

In this study we have examined the probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending on flare (flux, longitude and impulsive time) and CME parameters (linear speed, longitude, and angular width). For this we used the NOAA SPE list and their associated flare data from 1976 to 2006 and CME data from 1997 to 2006. We find that about 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with SPEs. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{circ}$ < L < $90W^{circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{circ}E$ < L < $90^{circ}E$. The SPE probability with long duration (${geq}$ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). In case of halo CMEs with V ${geq}$ 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in case of partial halo CME ($120^{circ}$ ${leq}$ AW < $360^{circ}$) with 400 km/s ${leq}$ V < 1000 km/s, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. The relationships between X-ray flare peak flux and SPE peak flux are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. The relationships between CME speed and SPE peak flux depend on longitude as well as direction parameter. From this study, we suggest a new SPE forecast method with three-steps: (1) SPE occurrence probability prediction according to the probability tables depending on flare and CME parameters, (2) SPE flux prediction from the relationship between SPE flux and flare (or CME) parameters, and (3) SPE peak time.