We investigated leaf disease intensity of Kalopanax septemlobus (prickly castor oil tree) caused by the parasitic fungus Mycosphaerella acanthopanacis, in thirty natural host populations in the Japanese Archipelago. The disease intensity observed for individual trees were analyzed using a generalized additive model as a function of tree size, tree density, climatic terms and spatial trend surface. Individual tree size and conspecific tree density were shown to have significant negative and positive effects on disease intensity, respectively. The findings suggest that the probability of disease infection is partly determined by dispersal of infection agents (ascospores) from the fallen leaves on the ground, which can be enhanced by aggregation of host trees in a forest stand. Regional-scale spatial bias was also present in disease intensity; the populations in northern Japan and southern Kyushu were more severely infected by the fungus than those in southwestern Honshu and Shikoku. Regional variation of disease intensity was explained by both climatic factors and a trend surface term, with a latitudinal cline detected, which increases towards the north. Further research should be conducted in order to understand all of the factors generating the latitudinal cline detected in this study.