- Statistical Interpretation of Economic Bubbles
- Statistical Interpretation of Economic Bubbles
- ㆍ 저자명
- Yeo. In-Kwon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 응용통계연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2012년|25권 6호|pp.889-896 (8 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국통계학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물|ENG| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper, we propose a statistic to measure investor sentiment. It is a usual phenomenon that an asymmetric volatility (referred to as the leverage effect) is observed in financial time series and is more sensitive to bad news rather than good news. In a bubble state, investors tend to continuously speculate on financial instruments because of optimism about the future; subsequently, prices tend to abnormally increase for a long time. Estimators of the transformation parameter and the skewness based on Yeo-Johnson transformed GARCH models are employed to check whether a bubble or abnormality exist. We verify the appropriacy of the proposed interpretation through analyses of KOSPI and NIKKEI.