- 대표농도경로 (RCP)에 따른 21세기 말 우리나라 극한강수 전망
- ㆍ 저자명
- 성장현,강현석,박수희,조천호,배덕효,김영오,Sung. Jang Hyun,Kang. Hyun-Suk,Park. Suhee,Cho. ChunHo,Bae. Deg Hyo,Kim. Young-Oh
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2012년|22권 2호|pp.221-231 (11 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are the latest emission scenarios recommended to use for the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study investigates the projection of extreme precipitation in South Korea during the forthcoming 21st Century using the generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis based on two different RCP conditions i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Maximum daily precipitation required for GEV analysis for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the corresponding global climate projections, which are produced within the CMIP5 framework. We found overall increase in frequency of extreme precipitation over South Korea in association with climate change. Particularly, daily extreme precipitation that has been occurred every 20 years in current climate (1980~2005) is likely to happen about every 4.3 and 3.4 years by the end of 21st Century (2070~2099) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions, respectively.