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IPCC 기후변화 시나리오(A1B)에 따른 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 산란장의 변동 예측
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  • IPCC 기후변화 시나리오(A1B)에 따른 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 산란장의 변동 예측
저자명
김중진,민홍식,김철호,윤진희,김수암,Kim. Jung-Jin,Min. Hong-Sik,Kim. Cheol-Ho,Yoon. Jin-Hee,Kim. Su-Am
간행물명
Ocean and polar research
권/호정보
2012년|34권 2호|pp.253-264 (12 pages)
발행정보
한국해양과학기술원
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{circ}{ imes}1/6^{circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.