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서지반출
대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 한반도 주요 평야지역 논벼 소비수량 추정
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  • 대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 한반도 주요 평야지역 논벼 소비수량 추정
저자명
정상옥,Chung. Sang-Ok
간행물명
한국농공학회논문집
권/호정보
2012년|54권 5호|pp.35-41 (7 pages)
발행정보
한국농공학회
파일정보
정기간행물|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

The paddy rice consumptive use in the six plains of the Korean peninsula was projected with changing climate under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. High resolution climate data for the baseline (1961-1990) was obtained from the International water management institute (IWMI) and future high resolution climate projection was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Reference evapotranspiration (ET) was calculated by using Hargreaves equation. The results of this study showed that the average annual mean temperature would increase persistently in the future. Temperatures were projected to increase more in RCP8.5 than those in RCP4.5 scenario. The rice consumptive use during the growing period was projected to increase slightly in the 2020s and then more significantly in the 2050s and 2080s. It showed higher values for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. The rice consumptive use after transplanting in the study areas would increase by 2.2 %, 5.1 % and 7.2 % for RCP4.5 and 3.0 %, 7.6 %, and 13.3 % for RCP8.5, in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline value of 534 mm. The results demonstrated the effects of climate change on rice consumptive use quite well, and can be used in the future agricultural water planning in the Korean peninsula.